"William W. Viergever" wrote:
> Where are all the Bayesian's when you need them, eh?
> (If I recall this one - stay with your original choice).
Sorry, the correct answer is that it is to your advantage to switch. The
math is very easy, no need for a simulation or SAS or to invoke Bayesian
> At 05:17 PM 01/23/2000 +0000, shiling@MATH.WAYNE.EDU wrote:
> >You have three doors to choose from, a la Let's Make a Deal. Behind one
> >of them is the grand prize. You choose one door. That leaves two that
> >you didn't choose. I now open one of the doors you didn't choose and
> >show you that the prize is not there. That leaves two possibilities:
> >it's either behind the door you chose, or behind the one remaining door
> >that you did not choose.
> >I now give you the chance to switch doors after I've shown you the empty
> >one. Is it to your advantage to switch, or does it make no difference?
> >If you are not sure what is the correct answer, you can do a simulation
> >in a data step.
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