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Date:   Mon, 24 Jan 2000 13:51:49 -0500
Reply-To:   Paige Miller <paige.miller@KODAK.COM>
Sender:   "SAS(r) Discussion" <SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
From:   Paige Miller <paige.miller@KODAK.COM>
Organization:   Eastman Kodak Company
Subject:   Re: an interesting game
Content-Type:   text/plain; charset=us-ascii

"William W. Viergever" wrote: > > Where are all the Bayesian's when you need them, eh? > > (If I recall this one - stay with your original choice).

Sorry, the correct answer is that it is to your advantage to switch. The math is very easy, no need for a simulation or SAS or to invoke Bayesian statistics.

> At 05:17 PM 01/23/2000 +0000, shiling@MATH.WAYNE.EDU wrote: > >You have three doors to choose from, a la Let's Make a Deal. Behind one > >of them is the grand prize. You choose one door. That leaves two that > >you didn't choose. I now open one of the doors you didn't choose and > >show you that the prize is not there. That leaves two possibilities: > >it's either behind the door you chose, or behind the one remaining door > >that you did not choose. > > > >I now give you the chance to switch doors after I've shown you the empty > >one. Is it to your advantage to switch, or does it make no difference? > >*************************** > > > >If you are not sure what is the correct answer, you can do a simulation > >in a data step.

-- Paige Miller Eastman Kodak Company paige.miller@kodak.com "It's nothing until I call it!" -- Bill Klem, NL Umpire


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