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Date:   Tue, 8 Feb 2005 14:38:26 +0100
Reply-To:   Dirk Enzmann <dirk.enzmann@jura.uni-hamburg.de>
Sender:   "SPSSX(r) Discussion" <SPSSX-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
From:   Dirk Enzmann <dirk.enzmann@jura.uni-hamburg.de>
Subject:   Confidence intervals for rates (dependent events)
Content-Type:   text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed

I need advice or opinions for the following problem:

In a sample a part of the respondents has experienced victimizing events. Only a part of these events have been reported to the police. The rate of events reported to the police is

number of experienced events / number of reported events.

Because the events cannot assumed to be independent (some victims have a high rate of vicitimization because they are more prone to become a victim) the construction of a confidence interval for the rate of events reported becomes difficult.

Question 1: If nevertheless a use a binomial test to construct a confidence interval (say: 0 of 13 events reported, CI = 0 to 24.7 %), is it correct that the width of this interval is a lower bound and thus a conservative estimate?

Question 2: (a) My intuition tells me that multilevel modeling could be a solution to obtain a correct confidence interval by treating the events and the events reported as the first level and the victims as the second. Is this correct and how should I specify this model?

(b) Alternatively, could I treat the events and events reported as coming from a negative binomial distribution and use this for constructing a confidence interval? How can this be done technically? If SPSS cannot handle this, I could also use the Design library of R (http://cran.r-project.org/ The Comprehensive R Archive Network).

Thanks in advance, Dirk

-- ************************************************* Dr. Dirk Enzmann Institute of Criminal Sciences Dept. of Criminology Schlueterstr. 28 D-20146 Hamburg Germany

phone: +49-040-42838.7498 (office) +49-040-42838.4591 (Billon) fax: +49-040-42838.2344 email: dirk.enzmann@jura.uni-hamburg.de www: http://www2.jura.uni-hamburg.de/instkrim/kriminologie/Mitarbeiter/Enzmann/Enzmann.html *************************************************


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