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Date:         Tue, 4 Oct 2005 08:37:33 -0700
Reply-To:     Nancy Li <nancy_li66@YAHOO.COM>
Sender:       "SAS(r) Discussion" <SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
From:         Nancy Li <nancy_li66@YAHOO.COM>
Subject:      Inquiry about appropriate statistics methodology
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1

Dear SAS_L users,

I know there are many statistics experts in this forum. I would like to pick your brain for a few minutes. At present, Iím doing a project about the analysis of healthcare utilization over 16-quarter period starting from the last quarter of 2002 to the third quarter of 2006. The utilization measures will include ED visits, Hospital admissions, Outpatient visits, and total cost. The utilization measurement in each quarter will be the numerator, and the population identification in the corresponding quarter will be the denominator. For the final analysis there will be a time series of fourteen points (the first seven quarters are the base, the last seven quarters are the evaluation, and the middle two quarters will be skipped) for each utilization measure for each population. I would like to apply an appropriate statistical methodology to each of these series to determine whether there is a distinguishable break or change in the slope of the utilization trend line between the base periods and the evaluation periods. My question is what the statistical techniques are appropriate for this analysis. Could you please give me some suggestions? Any input would be highly appreciated.



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