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Date:         Fri, 27 Nov 2009 23:36:09 -0800
Reply-To:     xlr82sas <xlr82sas@AOL.COM>
Sender:       "SAS(r) Discussion" <SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
From:         xlr82sas <xlr82sas@AOL.COM>
Organization: http://groups.google.com
Subject:      Re: SAS Programming Opportunites and the Normal Distribution
Comments: To: sas-l@uga.edu
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1

On Nov 27, 10:09 am, "Kenneth M. Lin" <kenneth_m_...@sbcglobal.net> wrote: > Your argument clearly indicate that you do not understand statistics. To > compare two normal distributions, you need to obtain their means and > variances. Yes, India and China have a lot more people than U.S. However, > what are of percentage of population that goes (or can afford to) to > college? How many SAS developers are there in India? I have worked with > Indian developers and in some cases we couldn't communicate at all because > their English was so poor. Sure, their hourly rates are low but I spent so > much time explaining simple tasks that at the end we didn't save any money > and the project didn't finish on time. > > "xlr82sas" <xlr82...@aol.com> wrote in message > > news:fe3cafcb-d625-40d1-816d-496943c69859@2g2000prl.googlegroups.com... > > > > > Hi SAS_lers, > > > Recently I have had to write letters of references for several > > unemployed US SAS programmers. > > These are programmers I have worked with in the past. > > > One was hired for a 2 month gig with a bunch of other programmers with > > the object to > > keep the best programmers and fire the 'least productive'. > > There is nothing wrong with this persons SAS programming skills. > > > He did not make the cut. > > > Recently I wrote another reference for him for a computer science > > master degree program. > > > When I look at his competition, I think about the normal distribution. > > India has over > > 1 billion people and China has over 1.2 billion, I think there are > > over 150,000 Indians and > > Chinese studing Engineering and computer science in US universities > > and many more in their > > respective countries. The normal distribution dictates that their are > > a lot more gifted Indian > > and Chinese SAS programmers than US SAS programmers. I have been a > > member of a falling minority > > of US programmers. I work with Chinese and Indian contractors day in > > and day out and the > > top Chinese and Indian SAS programmers are > > considerably better than the best US programmers. Again you cannot > > fight the normal distribution > > just like you cannot stop the sunrise. This is not to degrade US SAS > > programmers, it is a fact > > of life. > > > and Chinese SAS programmers than US SAS programmers. I have been a > > member of a falling minority- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text -

Hi SAS-Lers,

I need the assumption that there are more Chinese and Indian programmers than US progarmmers in my industry. I know this is fact because I have been in this industy fo 20 years at seven different companies. No need to read on if you do not believe in this assumption. I have done many interviews so I know the ethnicity of SAS programmers.

Lets examine what happend to my friend and why he did not make the cut. It was a contract job. I talked to the recruiter and he told me before the assignment that they were providing a farily large number of contractors and that only some of them would be kept on after the first two months.

Suppose the recruiter provided a random sample of 100 contractors, 80 of were Chinese or Indian and 20 were US programmers. Lets assume that only 20 would be kept on after two months. To be conservative suppose the two populations have the same mean skill level and standard deviations, disregard my tail theory for now. It does not matter what the mean and standard deviation is, there will be only a 20% chance my friend will be in the top 20 or 4 US programmers. 16 of the top 20 programmers will non US workers.

Now lets suppose thta the Chinese and Indian programmers are less skilled with a mean skill level of 1 and a standard deviation of 1 and that US programmers have a mean of 2 and standard deviation of 1. Twice as skilled. I calculate the US programmers have about 45% chance to be in the top 20% or 9 US programmers. I did a little simulation and here are the top 10 programmers in a simulation of 1000 samples of 100 programmers with equal skill level.

Here are the Satistics for the top 11.

999990 NON-US 4.26340 999991 US 4.27822 999992 NON-US 4.28149 999993 NON-US 4.36504 999994 NON-US 4.36913 999995 NON-US 4.52429 999996 NON-US 4.61791 999997 NON-US 4.62985 999998 NON-US 4.67240 999999 NON-US 4.68363 1000000 NON-US 4.69827


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