AFAIK, the "Delphi [Group] Technique" isn't a statistical or sampling methodology, per se, it's more of a consensus-building approach for forecasting or decision making, often used with "expert opinions." The basic approach is to solicit (written) input for all the experts, a facilitator synthesizes those and sends the synthesis back out to everyone for consideration, comment and feedback, and iters the process a few times until the estimates stabilize, so to speak. Because it tends to home in on a consensus (or a consensus set of possible scenarios) pretty quickly, and it is generally not necessary to physically convene a large panel of the topical experts, it's viewed as pretty efficient. (Whether there's been any studies to show that it's also accurate/effective, I don't know.)

A web-search on "Delphi Technique" gets some number of hits, although I didn't see one quickly that appeared to be deep & authoritative. There do seem to be a lot of posting in the educational field, suggesting some degree of cynicism/paranoia that Delphi Techniques are being used to EXCLUDE input from certain parties and push changes in directions pre-approved by behind-the-scenes puppetmasters, which was all new to me; I couldn't say if this has caused a skepticism of the Delphi Technique in general, or just in that context, but obviously in your specific situation (military promotion boards), there is a clear need for the process (and results) to be perceived as both fair and as objective as possible.

I think I first ran across the Delphi Technique in grad school, so there may be useful stuff in the "forecasting" section of "The MBA Tool Kit" type resources.

HTH

Douglas Dame Shands HealthCare Gainesville FL

> -----Original Message----- > From: SAS(r) Discussion [mailto:SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU]On Behalf Of > Thompson Bill T Contr USAFSAM/AFC > Sent: Friday, October 29, 1999 8:58 AM > To: SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU > Subject: Delphi Sampling > > > Is anyone familiar with Delphi sampling techniques and know > where I can find > references to same. The specific application under question is military > promotion boards using Delphi techniques for selection to higher Rank. > > Bill Thompson - Research Mathematician/Statistician > Conceptual Mindworks Inc. > School of Aerospace Medicine > Aeromedical Consultation Service - USAFSAM/AFC > 2507 Kennedy Circle > Brooks Air Force Base, Texas 78235-5117 > (DSN): 240-6835 Comm: 210-536-6835 > Fax: DSN/Comm - 2817 >