Date: Fri, 29 Oct 1999 14:56:10 -0400
Reply-To: Douglas Dame <dougdame@HPE.UFL.EDU>
Sender: "SAS(r) Discussion" <SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU>
From: Douglas Dame <dougdame@HPE.UFL.EDU>
Subject: Re: Delphi Sampling
In-Reply-To: <AF8E9AC40219D3119D7A009027463F985F14E1@grand.brooks.af.mil>
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AFAIK, the "Delphi [Group] Technique" isn't a statistical or sampling
methodology, per se, it's more of a consensus-building approach for
forecasting or decision making, often used with "expert opinions." The basic
approach is to solicit (written) input for all the experts, a facilitator
synthesizes those and sends the synthesis back out to everyone for
consideration, comment and feedback, and iters the process a few times until
the estimates stabilize, so to speak. Because it tends to home in on a
consensus (or a consensus set of possible scenarios) pretty quickly, and it
is generally not necessary to physically convene a large panel of the
topical experts, it's viewed as pretty efficient. (Whether there's been any
studies to show that it's also accurate/effective, I don't know.)
A web-search on "Delphi Technique" gets some number of hits, although I
didn't see one quickly that appeared to be deep & authoritative. There do
seem to be a lot of posting in the educational field, suggesting some degree
of cynicism/paranoia that Delphi Techniques are being used to EXCLUDE input
from certain parties and push changes in directions pre-approved by
behind-the-scenes puppetmasters, which was all new to me; I couldn't say if
this has caused a skepticism of the Delphi Technique in general, or just in
that context, but obviously in your specific situation (military promotion
boards), there is a clear need for the process (and results) to be perceived
as both fair and as objective as possible.
I think I first ran across the Delphi Technique in grad school, so there may
be useful stuff in the "forecasting" section of "The MBA Tool Kit" type
resources.
HTH
Douglas Dame
Shands HealthCare
Gainesville FL
> -----Original Message-----
> From: SAS(r) Discussion [mailto:SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU]On Behalf Of
> Thompson Bill T Contr USAFSAM/AFC
> Sent: Friday, October 29, 1999 8:58 AM
> To: SAS-L@LISTSERV.UGA.EDU
> Subject: Delphi Sampling
>
>
> Is anyone familiar with Delphi sampling techniques and know
> where I can find
> references to same. The specific application under question is military
> promotion boards using Delphi techniques for selection to higher Rank.
>
> Bill Thompson - Research Mathematician/Statistician
> Conceptual Mindworks Inc.
> School of Aerospace Medicine
> Aeromedical Consultation Service - USAFSAM/AFC
> 2507 Kennedy Circle
> Brooks Air Force Base, Texas 78235-5117
> (DSN): 240-6835 Comm: 210-536-6835
> Fax: DSN/Comm - 2817
>
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