----------------------------Original message----------------------------
 
> ----------------------------Original message----------------------------
> We have a patron who wants a map showing the effect upon the world's
> coastlines of a one-metre rise in sea-level.  In fact, she would settle
> upon a map of any part of the world where the effect would be
> particularly noticeable--e.g.  Florida or the Maritime provinces in
> Canada.  I have searched through the usual sources, mostly atlases, but
> found nothing.  I tried atlases of Florida, including one devoted to
> water resources, TImes Atlas of the Oceans, and so on.  But no luck.
> ANyone have any ideas?  Thanks.
 
What TYPE of impacts does your client have in mind? Flood vulnerability?
Increased erosion? Wetland loss? sediment budget changes? all of these or
neither?
 
There have been local studies of the impacts of sea-level rise undertaken in
various places - my colleague, Robert Devoy here in Cork, had a paper on the
possible future impacts of s.l.r. on the coasts of Ireland published in the
journal "Irish Geography" a year or two ago (sorry - don't have the full
reference to hand). You might look up the work of the late Bill (Prof R.W.G.)
Carter - for example his book "Coastal Environments" (Academic Press, 1987-ish).
 
Also, Prof. Jerome Dobson (Martin Marietta Systems Inc., and Oak Ridge
National Labs in Tennessee) has been involved in the US Coastwatch project,
which used satellite (Landsat) imagery to look at changes in wetlands around
the coasts of the USA (incl. non-contiguous areas). Sea-level change was one
of the factors they considered. However, I don't know what vertical resolution
they worked to.
 
One big problem, of course, is that there are very few areas of the world
where the coast has been systematically surveyed to 1 meter vertical resolution
(let alone sub-metre scales). So any maps will be very gross estimates and
generalisations.
 
Also, the impacts of sea level rise are likely to be MUCH more complex than
would appear by simply raising the plane of the water level by 1 metre - thngs
like storm surge behaviour, beach profiles, wetland extent and morphology,
will also change, often in non-"linear" manner. So, again, your patron needs
to be aware that any map you may get hold of is also almost certainly going
to massively generalise and smooth over these complications.
 
Finally, the consensus of scientific predictions about near-future sea-level
changes, as I understand it, has progressively refined the estimated
magnitude of s.l.r. from the early extremes of 5 metres or more (e.g. Jim
Titus' work for the US E.P.A. in the 1970s and early 1980s) to much more
conservative sub-metre levels. So, according to current thinkng, we are
unlikely to actually have a one-metre rise. About half of that seems to be
the global mean prediction these days - measured / projected over the next
century or so.
 
Sorry if this comes over as a bit pedantic - I hope you can find a map to
keep your client happy!
 
regards,
Darius Bartlett
University College Cork, Ireland.