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Subject: Climate Change, Natural Hazards, Land-Use Change: USGS at
Annual Association of American Geographers Meeting
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 17:44:25 -0700
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March 20, 2009
Leslie Gordon 650-793-1534 [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
Paul Laustsen 650-454-7264 [log in to unmask] <mailto:[log in to unmask]>
Jon Campbell 540-303-2588 [log in to unmask]
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Climate Change, Natural Hazards, Land-Use Change: USGS at Annual
Association of American Geographers Meeting
Remote sensing, satellite imagery, and analysis of land-cover and
land-use change are the tools of the USGS scientist. Applied to problems
such as global climate change, environmental health, and natural hazard
risk and mitigation, USGS geographic research leads to solutions for
critical societal issues as diverse as habitat conservation, earthquake
hazards, and agriculture.
Join USGS scientists at the annual Association of American Geographers
conference in Las Vegas, Nevada, March 22-17, 2009, as they address
these subjects. Highlights of USGS participation in the AAG meeting include:
*Climate Change and Glaciers*
Glaciers, snow, and ice sheets are important components of the Earth's
water and climate. They respond to and indicate changes in climate, as
well as exerting an influence on global and regional climate. They also
have an effect on water resources, serving as natural reservoirs.
Measuring changes in the size and volume of glaciers and snowpacks
provides one direct way of documenting the impacts of variations in the
global climate.
/Glaciers, Hydrology and Climate Change at Glacier National Park,
Montana, USA./
Mountain glaciers continue to retreat rapidly over most of the globe. In
Glacier National Park in Montana, only 25 glaciers remain out of an
estimated 150 that existed at the end of the 19th century. Rates of
glacier shrinkage have increased primarily coupled to climate changes. A
geospatial model that suggested all glaciers would be gone from the park
by 2030 has proven to be too conservative. Accelerated glacier shrinkage
since the model was developed has mirrored an increase in actual annual
temperature that is almost twice the rate used in the model. The
glaciers in Glacier National Park are likely to be gone well before
2030. Hydrologic consequences are already evident. Streams have become
intermittent as late summer baseflows are no longer maintained by
glacial melt water.
*Daniel B. Fagre*
*Wednesday, 3/25, 5:40 PM - North Hall N115, Las Vegas Convention Center
Paper Session: 4654 Mountain Ice and Snow 3: Glaciers and Water Resources*
/Recent Declines in Western U.S. Snowpack in the Context of 20th Century
Climate Variability/
A monthly snow-accumulation and melt model is used with monthly
temperature and precipitation records from 1900 through 2008. The
authors relate the noticeable decline in spring snowmelt since 1986 to
decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature related to
winter atmospheric pressures over the western United States since 1896.
*Gregory J. McCabe and David M. Wolock*
*Monday, 3/23, 9:20 AM - Grande Ballroom H, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor
Chair, Presenter - Paper Session: 2105 Recent Climate Change in the USA*
*Land Use and Land-Cover Change*
The illustrated paper session #2517, 30 Years of Landscape Change in
California and the West, will feature a series of presentations about
measuring land-cover change through time using Landsat satellite
imagery. Between 1970 and 2000, the population in California grew
significantly along with a continued regional, national, and global
demand for state-produced goods. These changes resulted in
anthropogenic landscape change throughout the state, with
resource-oriented landscape changes far outpacing changes associated
with urbanization. Resource-driven changes are observed in areas of
agricultural relocation and expansion and forest clear-cutting. Fire is
seen as the largest factor in land-cover change between 1992 and 2000.
Satellite imagery documents the rates, drivers, and consequences of
land-cover change, providing information to assist managers and policy
makers in making wise decisions related to ecosystems and critical
landscape changes within their jurisdictions. Individual presenters will
share research findings that describe land-cover change in ecoregions of
California and the West.
*Illustrated Paper Session: 2517, 30 Years of Landscape Change in
California and the West
Monday, 3/23, 3:10 – 4:50 PM - Capri 104, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor*
/Late 20th Century Landscape Change in California/
*Benjamin Sleeter, 3:10 PM*
/Land-Cover Trends in the Forested Ecoregions of California: Sierra
Nevada and Southern California Mountains/
*Christopher E. Soulard, 3:15 PM*
/Land-Cover Change for the Eastern Cascades Foothills and Cascades
Ecoregions in California, 1973-2000/
*Daniel Sorenson, 3:20 PM*
/Land Cover Trends Project Status and Preliminary U.S. Results/
*Kristi Sayler, 3:25 PM*
/Comparison of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change in the California Central
Valley and Oak Woodlands/
*Amy Mathie, 3:30 PM*
/California's Klamath and Coast Range Mountains - Nearly Three Decades
of Landcover Change/
*Tamara Wilson, 3:35 PM*
/Land Cover Trends in the Western U.S./
*Susan Benjamin, 3:40 PM*
/Land Cover Trends of the California Desert, 1973-2000/
*James Calzia, 3:45 PM*
*Additional Land Use and Land-Cover presentations:*
/Assessing Landscape Change for the Southern Texas Plains Ecoregion/
Brush-management practices by ranchers to improve livestock grazing and
wildlife habitat were found to be the main driver of a relatively high
rate of land cover conversion in the South Texas Plains ecoregion, which
covers an area southwest of San Antonio, Texas, south to the Mexican
border. Most of the South Texas Plains are savannas or shrublands
dominated by drought-tolerant and often thorn-laden small trees and
shrubs. Prior to 1900, both grasslands and mesquite brushlands were
widespread in this part of Texas. Today, livestock overgrazing and the
suppression of natural wildfires have caused grassland encroachment by
mesquite, prickly pear cactus, salt cedar, ashe juniper and abundant
black brush. Analysis of Landsat satellite data from 1973 to 2000
indicates a moderately high amount (approximately 12 %) of land cover
conversion when compared to other U.S. Great Plains ecoregions.
*Michael Peter Stier*
*Wednesday, 3/25, Grande Ballroom EF, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor
Poster Session: 4603 Land and Water *
/The Components of a National Land Change Community Model/
Understanding and forecasting the effects of climate change on the
environment is partly dependent on understanding land change. Land
change forecasts are critical for mitigating and adapting to adverse
consequences of anthropogenic activities and natural processes. The
causes and consequences of land change are complex, varying spatially
and temporally. Understanding these phenomena requires knowledge of
human and natural processes and their interactions. The U.S. Geological
Survey is proposing the development of a National Land Change Community
Model to enable the forecasting of change in regional land
characteristics relevant to environmental concerns. This model is
envisioned as a community-maintained hub of information, data, and open
source software for understanding and simulating regional land change.
*Peter Revere Claggett*
*Monday, 3/23/09 at 10:10 AM, Grande Ballroom G, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor
Paper Session: 2204 The National Land Change Community Model: a
Framework and Resources for Regional Land-Change Modeling*
/A knowledge management approach for complex regional ecosystem modeling
in Puget Sound/
The Puget Sound Integrated Landscape Monitoring Pilot is approaching the
complex task of integrating the human dimension as a component of the
landscape-level ecosystem dynamics by using an innovative knowledge
management system to conceptualize the interactions between various
parts of the greater Puget Sound ecosystem. The knowledge management
system software "Personal Brain" has been used to develop models of both
human social systems and ecosystem processes. The framework that has
been developed is providing insights into the linkages and relationships
between ecosystem processes at different scales and human-initiated
programs to address and repair ecosystem damage.
*Danielle Page Aiello and Alicia Torregrosa
Wednesday, 3/25/09 at 3:40 PM - Capri 103, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor
Illustrated Paper Session: 4516 Physical Geography and Land Use*
*Natural Hazards and Risk*
Geographic analyses of population centers, economic situations, and
exposure to natural hazards can be used for risk mitigation.
/Demonstration of the Land Use Portfolio Model, Version 1.0 Software /
The USGS Land Use Portfolio Model uses the concepts of financial
portfolio theory to estimate the economic impact of natural hazard
mitigation investment decisions. The model generates estimates of losses
avoided and changes to community wealth as well as the variability of
these outputs based on mitigation decisions affecting specifically
targeted natural hazard events. As a tool for natural hazard mitigation
planning and analysis, the software is designed for use in a geographic
information system (GIS). It can be used to generate any number of
scenarios, each representing a different mitigation strategy. The
results from these scenarios can then be compared and analyzed further
to determine which scenarios come closest to meeting mitigation planning
objectives. A demonstration will be given to show how the software can
be used to support a hazard event mitigation analysis of a potential
earthquake impacting the San Francisco Bay Area.
*Peter Ng*
*Monday, 3/23, 1:15 PM - North Hall N108, Las Vegas Convention Center
Paper Session: 2447 The Land-Use Portfolio Model for Natural-Hazards
Mitigation
Decision Making: Case Studies, Decision-Support Tool, and Mathematics *
Other USGS presentations using the Land Use Portfolio Model to estimate
hazards and improve mitigation measures in New Madrid, Missouri, and
Ventura County, CA, are in the same session:
/A Web-Based Tool for Cost-Benefit Analysis of Earthquake Hazard
Mitigation Policy in Memphis, Tennessee
/*David Robert Strong, Richard L Bernknopf, and others*
*Monday, 3/23, 1:35 PM North Hall N108, Las Vegas Convention Center*
/Applying the Land Use Portfolio Model to Estimate Natural-Hazards Loss
and Risk: A Demonstration Analysis for Landslides in Ventura County,
California/
*Laura Dinitz
Monday, 3/23, 2:15 PM - North Hall N108, Las Vegas Convention Center*
/Mapping Variations in Burn Severity in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using
Spectral and Non-spectral Data/
Remotely sensed data provide information on fire regime characteristics
in the Alaskan boreal forest, such as burned area, fire seasonality, and
interannual variation, with a high degree of confidence. However, some
aspects of the fire regime, particularly those related to the impact of
fire on surface and substrate, are not easily mapped using remotely
sensed data. In particular, the depth of burn is an important
characteristic that influences soil temperature and moisture content, as
well as the dominant plant types in post-fire succession. The
incorporation of data on topographic position, fire seasonality, and
meteorological data can greatly improve mapping post-fire reduction of
the organic soil layer. Mapping variations in burn depth will likely
improve projections of post-fire plant succession and has important
implications for carbon cycling, albedo, and future fire regime
characteristics. In the context of current climate change projections
for the region, the occurrence of more severe fires is likely to
increase, underscoring the importance of elaborating burn severity and
its impacts on vegetation, soil surface, and substrate.
*Kirsten Barrett
Friday, 3/27, 9:00 AM - North Hall N111, Las Vegas Convention Center
Chair, Presenter - Paper Session: 6150 Fire and Remote Sensing*
*Biological and Environmental Applications of Geography*
The desert tortoise inhabits a broad range of habitat in the Mojave and
Sonoran deserts in the United States and Northern Mexico. Tortoises
exist in relatively low densities throughout much of the listed range
and spend much of their time below ground, making them difficult to
enumerate. Effective management depends not only on understanding
population density but also measuring the amount of potentially suitable
habitat. A potential habitat model was developed for use in the Revised
Recovery Plan for the federally protected Mojave Population of the
desert tortoise. The 16 environmental variables used in the model
included physical (e.g. elevation, slope, surface roughness, and aspect)
and biologically relevant (e.g. estimates of annual plant production,
perennial cover, and annual rainfall) factors. While this model
indicates habitat suitability, there are several anthropogenic impacts
(both direct and indirect) that can influence the realized suitability
of the predicted habitat. The authors used this model to evaluate the
effects of several anthropogenic parameters on desert tortoise habitat
including: roads, urban areas, utility corridors, fencing, fire, land
status (e.g. wilderness, National Park, critical habitat, private
lands), and off-highway vehicle activity. The following two
presentations will discuss the results of this study:
/Ecological Interpretations of Model Parameters Contributing to a
Habitat Suitability Model for Desert Tortoises/
*Ken Nussear, Todd Esque, and others
Tuesday, 3/24, 1:43 PM - Skybox 203, Riviera Hotel, 2nd Floor
Paper Session: 3431 The Mojave Desert: Biogeographical Research*
/Habitat Conservation Status of the Mojave Population of the Desert
Tortoise/
*Todd C. Esque, Kenneth E. Nussear, and others
Tuesday, 3/24/, 2:02 PM - Skybox 203, Riviera Hotel, 2nd Floor
Paper Session: 3431 The Mojave Desert: Biogeographical Research *
/
Post-Fire Recovery and Re-vegetation Success in the Mojave Desert/
Natural recovery and rehabilitation success, under current and predicted
climate scenarios, are best understood through long-term monitoring of a
broad range of sites where climate and site attributes are measured
concurrently with post-treatment vegetation responses. Wildfires that
burned a million acres of creosote bush - Joshua tree and mixed
blackbrush shrublands in southern Nevada and northwest Arizona during
the summers of 2005 and 2006 were re-vegetated with native Mojave Desert
plant species in an effort to accelerate the recovery of plants that are
important as food and cover for the federally threatened desert
tortoise. Plant establishment and seedling survival after re-seeding or
transplanting greenhouse-grown seedlings revealed the importance of
rainfall seasonality and abundance and its interactions with
re-vegetation treatments and site attributes. These results emphasize
the importance of approaching arid land rehabilitation from a regional
perspective by integrating science and monitoring to understand the
drivers of natural recovery and re-vegetation success.
*Lesley DeFalco, Sara J. Scoles-Sciulla, and Todd E. Esque
Tuesday, 3/24, 4:12 PM - Skybox 203, Riviera Hotel, 2nd Floor
Paper Session: 3531 The Mojave Desert: Threats and Restoration*
/The National Phenology Network: Tracking the Timing of Plants, Animals
and Climate Across the Nation/
The USA National Phenology Network (NPN) is an emerging and exciting
partnership among federal agencies, the academic community, and the
public to monitor and understand the influence of seasonal cycles on the
Nation's biotic resources. The goal of the NPN (http://www.usanpn.org)
is to establish a nation-wide science and monitoring program focused on
phenology, which is the study of the annual timing of animal and plant
life events; the causes of this timing; and the interrelations among
annual life events of the same or different species. Although phenology
is a far-reaching component of environmental science, the relationships
of phenology to ecological processes, biogeographic patterns, and
biophysical processes are not well understood. The NPN is integrating
with other observation networks, including networks of biological field
stations; is facilitating development of regional phenology networks;
and is using remote sensing products, emerging technology, and data
management capabilities. Phenological data are important to
understanding earth surface processes, climate change interactions, and
ecosystem services.
*Kathryn Thomas and Jake F. Weltzin
Tuesday, 3/24, 5:40 PM - North Hall N103, Las Vegas Convention Center
Paper Session: 3645 Natural Resources and Land Use Change *
*Satellite Imagery and Remote-Sensing Applications*
/Geomorphic Mapping of Tropical Alluvial Placer Deposits/
Mapping artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) activities for gold and
diamonds is a central problem in many developing nations. ASM often
occurs within alluvial deposits in remote regions outside legal and
regulatory control. Because the use of optical remote sensing techniques
to monitor artisanal mining is hampered by perennial cloud cover and
dense vegetation in tropical regions, and published maps are often
unavailable, of inadequate scale, or are out-of-date, the USGS is
developing a semi-automated methodology for mapping the geomorphology of
tropical alluvial placer deposits in the diamondiferous Birim watershed
in southeastern Ghana.
*Peter George Chirico
Sunday, 3/22, 1:40 PM - North Hall N113, Las Vegas Convention Center
Paper Session: 1152 DEM Processing, Validation, and Application *
/
Landsat: Continuing and Improving a Long-Term Global Record of Earth
Observation/
Since the launch of Landsat 1 in 1972, six Landsat satellites have
acquired coverage of the Earth's land surfaces at a scale where natural
and human-induced changes can be detected and monitored over time.
Extending this unprecedented, comprehensive record of landscape dynamics
is a major science priority for NASA and the USGS, who are now
developing the Landsat Data Continuity Mission. Full realization of the
value of Landsat was previously stymied by the cost of data over large
areas and long time periods. As a step toward realizing the full
potential of the 36-year Landsat record, the USGS has released the
entire Landsat archive via the Internet at no cost. The opening of the
Landsat archive and the continuation of the Landsat record will create
an era of new opportunities for innovation and applications.
*Thomas R. Loveland
Thursday, 3/26, 9:20 AM - Capri 115, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor
Paper Session: 5127 New Global Data Sets for Monitoring the Environment *
*
Maps and Geospatial data*
/USGS Standard Quadrangle Maps for Emergency Response/
The signature product of the U.S. national map series is the 7.5-minute
topographic quadrangle. This series was completed in 1992, and few of
its maps have been revised since. Most maps in this series are cast on
an outdated datum and do not contain a full-line Universal Transverse
Mercator (UTM) grid, making them unsuitable for emergency response
operations, even where the content is still current. Hurricane Katrina
and other recent (2008) emergencies have revived the debate about
whether or not traditional, printed maps are still important. The USGS
is reviving 1:24,000-scale quadrangle maps by designing new products
that are essentially image maps with linework and text enhancements.
State and local agencies are interested in participating in the design
and production of new quadrangle maps; cooperative projects with several
states are in progress.
*Laurence Moore
Sunday, 3/22, 3:30 PM - North Hall N114, Las Vegas Convention Center
Paper Session: 1253 Disaster Response
*
*Science along the US/Mexico border*
/Planning Land and Water-Resource Management in the Upper Santa Cruz
Watershed, Arizona and Sonora, Mexico/
In the US/Mexico borderland region of the desert southwest, the health
of people and the natural ecosystem on which they rely largely depend on
the quality, quantity and distribution of water resources. Hydrologic
models based on geographic information systems are a tool for
understanding and predicting the impact of land management practices on
water and sediment yields over long periods of time. Model simulations
used in an existing water flow model will improve understanding of the
effects of humans and climate on aquifer dynamics and contaminant transport.
*Laura Margaret Norman
Monday, 3/23, 3:10 PM - Capri 112, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor
Chair, Organizer, Presenter - Paper Session: 2524 U.S.-Mexico Border
Environmental Health *
/An Introduction to the U.S.-Mexico Border Environmental Health Research/
Bi-national agreements between the United States and Mexico provide a
framework for public access to the best available geospatial data along
the US/Mexico border. Bringing together the best available information
from both nations about mapping land use, contaminants, aerial imagery,
and documenting measurements of environmental health, water quality, and
soil geochemistry serves as the basis for examining the linkages between
human and environmental health.
*Jean Parcher and Diana Papoulias
Monday, 3/23, 3:30 PM - Capri 112, Riviera Hotel, 1st Floor
Organizer, Presenter - Paper Session: 2524 U.S.-Mexico Border
Environmental Health*
*Other Topics of interest: (Agriculture, Archeology, Ethics)*
/Agricultural Trends and Driving Forces in Diverse United States Regions/
Landsat satellite imagery from 1972 to the present and Census data since
1950 indicate key driving forces and trends in landcover changes in
agricultural regions of the United States. Eastern forests had a high
rate of cropland loss and transition out of farm ownership since 1950,
shifting from agricultural land to timber production, urbanization, and
transitional grassland/shrubland. California had a high overall rate of
farmland loss although cropland production remained stable as primarily
low intensity land uses declined and irrigation increased. In the
largely grassland region of the Great Plains, intensive agriculture
concentrated in higher quality lands, but the region experienced a
relatively lower rate of farmland loss. Expanding economic opportunities
including biofuels affect this trend.
*Mark A. Drummond
Wednesday, 3/25, 5:20 PM - 7:00 PM Grande Ballroom EF, Riviera Hotel,
1st Floor
Poster Session: 4603 Land and Water *
/
Prehistoric Environment and Settlement in the Holmul Region of the
Southern Maya Lowlands /
There is currently a debate about the influence of environmental change
on prehistoric settlement patterns in the Maya lowlands. Lake and marsh
core records allow us to detect local landscape change, specifically
periods of accelerated soil erosion and shifts in regional hydrology,
both of which have been posited as potential contributors to prehistoric
abandonments. Detailed archaeological assessments of settlement and land
use with local lake records of environmental change suggest
anthropogenic and/or climate impacts played a role in shaping
prehistoric demographic patterns. Analyses of pollen, charcoal, and
other factors are used to reconstruct local environments through the
entire period of prehistoric Maya settlement. Relatively heavy carbon
isotopes through the period of prehistoric settlement correspond to
pollen evidence of forest disturbance and agricultural activity.
Increased charcoal concentrations during the Classic period suggest a
shift in agricultural strategies and/or settlement patterns. Together
these results show clear evidence of nearby human activity and its
effects on the local environment.
*David B. Wahl
Thursday, 3/26, 3:50 PM - Skybox 212, Riviera Hotel, 2nd Floor
Paper Session: 5540 Soils, Sediments, and Geoarchaeology I*
/Geographic Information Ethics/
Ethical engagements with the multitude of GIS applications and uses,
whether surreptitious or overt, have marked recent developments in the
field. The U.S. Department of Labor has highlighted "geographic
technology" as a key high-growth job field for the 21st century. While
the potential benefits and risks of geographic technologies are becoming
well known, ethical issues are less widely discussed. For instance:
- Geographic technologies are surveillance technologies. The data they
produce may be used to invade the privacy, and even the autonomy, of
individuals and groups.
- Data gathered using geographic technologies are used to make policy
decisions. Erroneous, inadequately documented, or inappropriate data can
have grave consequences for individuals and the environment.
- Geographic technologies have the potential to exacerbate inequities in
society, insofar as large organizations enjoy greater access to
technology, data, and technological expertise than smaller organizations
and individuals.
*Barbara Poore (panelist)
Tuesday, 3/24/09, from 10:10 AM - 11:50 AM in Skybox 208, Riviera Hotel,
2nd Floor
Panel Session: 3236 Geographic Information Ethics and GIScience II *
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