Raul,

I've been working for several years in these problems, so if you want you can contact me directly ([log in to unmask]). On the other hand, if you are working with weather generators, you have to take into account to mantain not only the temporal but also the spatial structure of your data. Poin-weather generators can lead to several problems since they do not respect the spatial correlations among weather stations or grid-cells. We have a new geospatial weather generator that preserve the spatial and temporal structure of rainfall, maximum and minimum temperatures, and also include the covariances between maximum temperature and precipitation. We have a software that we will be available soon, and a paper that was already submitted for potential publicacion. This is the perfect tool for what you are trying to do in climate variability and climate change to forecast crop yields among other variables.

Regards,

Guillermo Baigorria
University of Florida
Agricultural and Biologial Engineering Dpt.
http://plaza.ufl.edu/gbaigorr/GB/

________________________________________
From: DSSAT - Crop Models and Applications [[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Raul Orrego [[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Tuesday, May 05, 2009 3:41 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Calender issue for climate change study‏

I’m a Chilean student and in my PhD thesis (in course) I try to asses the
impact of climate change in the agriculture through GCM, downscaling and
crop models. In fact, I will use the PRECIS’s projections that were done
in my region as start point.
For solving the problem of years of 360 days, I plan to use a stochastic
generator models. This solution is based in that the GCM’s outputs are not
a good forecast, but they are excellent projections. In this way, is
better work with monthly datasets and generate many scenarios for
assessing the impact.

I interested in generate a net of contact whit other peoples that work in
this theme, there is more problems that will solve, such as effect of ENSO
(that it not solved through stochastic models, in fact, we don’t know the
impact of climate change in this phenomena), or the probability of IPCC
scenarios.

With regards


Raúl Orrego
CAID Universidad de la Frontera
Temuco Chile
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