December 06, 2005
Writers:
David Stooksbury ([log in to unmask]) 706-583-0156
Sources:
David Stooksbury ([log in to unmask]) 706-583-0156
Winter outlook: wide swings from bitter to balmy
By David Stooksbury
College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences
By David Emory Stooksbury
University of Georgia
The winter climate outlook for Georgia is, in a word, variable.
Georgians this winter can expect wide swings in temperatures with
several extremely cold outbreaks. The best advice is to prepare
for very cold weather.
There will also be times when temperatures will be much above
normal, reminding us why we like living in the South.
With wide temperature swings expected, the probability of severe
thunderstorms and tornados throughout the winter is above normal,
too.
Winter tornados are common in Georgia. They can happen any time
of day or night. A NOAA weather radio is an essential safety item
that all homes, businesses, churches and places where people
gather should have.
In the mountains, low temperatures below zero can be expected
this winter. Single digit lows can be expected as far south as
the northern coastal plain. Much of south Georgia can expect lows
around 10 degrees. Even along the coast, lows in the lower teens
are expected this winter.
However, the winter also promises periods of very nice weather.
High temperatures ranging from the upper 60s in the mountains to
around 80 in south Georgia are expected.
Atmospheric scientists have a good understanding of the general
climate pattern for the winter. What we don't have is a good
ability to forecast the timing of major cold outbreaks and warm
periods weeks in advance.
Accurate forecasts of specific daily temperatures are only
available for six to 10 days in advance.
The winter climate pattern in the Southeast is primarily
determined by the Southern Oscillation - El Nino, or ENSO, phase.
In the El Nino phase, Georgia expects a cool, wet winter. In the
La Nina phase, we expect a warm, dry winter. Now, though, we're
in a neutral phase. For Georgia, a neutral phase brings wide
swings in temperature.
All major cold outbreaks that have affected Florida citrus have
occurred during neutral phase winters.
The rainfall outlook is uncertain. Under the neutral phase,
winter rainfall patterns show great variability, and atmospheric
scientists have very little skill in forecasting it. Some
neutral-phase winters are very dry, while others are very wet.
Most are near normal.
So what's the probability of a white Christmas in Georgia this
year? Outside of the mountains, it's between zero and nil. For
the mountains, the probability increases but is still low.
With periods of extreme cold, though, there's a better chance
than normal that Georgia will have some frozen precipitation this
winter. At least one major winter weather event is expected
across north Georgia this winter.
Real-time weather conditions from the University of Georgia
network of weather stations are available at www.georgiaweather.net.
(David Emory Stooksbury is the state climatologist and a
professor of engineering and atmospheric sciences in the
University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental
Sciences.)
Susan Thornhill
GA Center for Urban Agriculture
1109 Experiment St.
Griffin, GA 30223-1797
Phone: 770-233-6107
Fax: 770-233-6109
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