Richard

Did you read the paper?  Did you read Mark's comments?  Just because
environmental groups have distorted the words in the paper is not a
reason to attach or trash or blame the authors.  Mark clearly states
that it is a model, and anyone who works with models would know that a
model is just that, it is not reality.

And......what if the model is correct?  What if you are wrong?  Are you
suggesting that nothing be done about it?  Or maybe we shouldn't be
concerned that thousands and thousands of Red Knots have disappeared and
may continue to?  Heck, maybe a few thousand will be sufficient?  Maybe
there is no need to protect horseshoe crabs?  What's the point of
trashing the authors here?  Are they to blame for pointing out that this
species needs help, and may be approaching extinction?  I'd be willing
to bet no one thought Passenger Pigeon's were going to go extinct.
Oops.  Wrong.  Good thing we had models to predict that......

Cheers
Dave Lauten
Bandon OR
[log in to unmask]

rsheil wrote:

>Phil,
>
>   The extinction by 2010 claim is ridiculous on it's face.  I don't need to
>read the paper to know that.   If they made the claim, which I believe thay
>did (or NJ Audubon, Del. Audubon, and all the others fabricated the
>citation?) then the criticism remains.  If they did not make the claim, why
>are they allowing all of these groups for the past three years to state that
>they have?
>
>  Do you believe rufa Red Knots will be extinct in less than three years?
>The belief that the current empirical data supports the idea that rufa Red
>Knots will be extinct by 2010, in less than three years, is ridiculous, and
>I have difficulty believing that any competent scientist actually believes
>this.
>
>   Let me ask you exactly how will rufa Red Knots become extinct in less
>than three years?  Even in an extreme hypothetical, if Delaware Bay ceased
>to exist, even if Horseshoe Crabs disappeared from the planet tomorrow, rufa
>Red Knots would not become extinct in three years.  Knots do eat other prey
>besides crab eggs, and there are other estuaries and beaches besides those
>of Delaware Bay.  I understand the implications and requirements of the very
>long distance migration of the majority of rufa Red Knots, but other
>portions of the population winter much farther north (than Argentina)
>including in the US, and employ very different migration strategies than the
>Tierra del Fuego segment of the population.  Even the Argentine population
>is capable of altering their migration strategies, and utilizing other, less
>optimal migratory sites if crab eggs are depleted.  I'm sure they are doing
>this now.  These and other factors such as a poor Arctic breeding season has
>dramatically reduce the population to a lower level, but imminent extinction
>is not an issue.   Do you believe that the entire rufa Red Knot population
>are 100% dependent upon Delaware Bay AND 100% dependent upon Horseshoe Crab
>eggs to complete their migration and subsequent reproduction in the Arctic?
>To claim that ONE site and ONE prey item, though clearly important to
>maintaining the population at historical levels, is an absolute limiting
>factor necessary to the complete survival of the entire race, is ridiculous.
>Knots are not that much of a specialist.
>
>Richard S. Heil
>S. Peabody, MA
>[log in to unmask]
>
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Phil Jeffrey" <[log in to unmask]>
>To: "rsheil" <[log in to unmask]>
>Cc: <[log in to unmask]>
>Sent: Tuesday, May 29, 2007 9:42 PM
>Subject: Re: [SHOREBIRDS] Red Knot - Extinction Question
>
>
>
>
>>The paper in question is available online at
>>http://www.journals.royalsoc.ac.uk/content/7vn5p9c3wen58bvy/
>>(see link therein for full text version in PDF format).
>>
>>I am, however, extremely surprised that anyone would seek to criticize
>>the contents of a paper they claim to have never read.
>>
>>Phil Jeffrey
>>Princeton, NJ
>>
>>
>>On 5/29/07, rsheil <[log in to unmask]> wrote:
>>
>>[much text omitted]
>>
>>
>>>   Mark,
>>>       I haven't read the original paper but am basing my criticism of
>>>
>>>
>the
>
>
>>>extinction claims based on dozens (actually hundreds) of reports
>>>
>>>
>eminating
>
>
>>>from the above sources citing your paper.  Does your paper, or does it
>>>
>>>
>not,
>
>
>>>predict extinction at or near 2010 for rufa Red Knot?
>>>
>>>
>>[more text omitted]
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>
>