Hi Shireen and All,

I have seen this issue/article discussed either here or on another forum
recently, and the extinction statement was said (by the authors of the
study) to be based more on a model than an actual prediction.  Unless, of
course, the statement you are referring to is from a different article!
Either way, there is certainly concern in both the scientific and birding
community about the Red Knot's situation.  Cape May/Delaware Bay was
involved in the beginning of the problem, but it is becoming apparent it
involves more than that now.

Charlie Ewell
Cape Coral, FL
[log in to unmask]

-----Original Message-----
From: Shorebird Discussion Group [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On
Behalf Of Shireen Gonzaga
Sent: Saturday, August 18, 2007 5:21 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [SHOREBIRDS] [Fwd: [NEOORN-L] Red Knot populations plummet]

The article cites lack of hcrab eggs as a major reason for the
population drop. Even if there were a moratorium on all harvests, it
would take at least 10 years, at the earliest, for the hcrab
population to recover, since it takes 8-10 years for juveniles to
reach maturity. (The unknown is how many juveniles are in the bay.)
The article says the knots could be extinct in 10 years.

My questions, for the Red knot rufa experts, what is the critical
window of time & actions needed to avoid this catastrophe? What is
the minimum number of birds for maintaining a viable breeding
population needed for recovery? At some point, the numbers would
reach a critical minimum when extinction will become inevitable due
to deaths by natural causes, predation, and other risk factors like
pollution.

Very sad news indeed.


- shireen

> Date:    Fri, 17 Aug 2007 08:11:34 -0700
> From:    DJ Lauten and KACastelein <[log in to unmask]>
> Subject: [Fwd: [NEOORN-L] Red Knot populations plummet]
> ...
> "A new report has revealed a drastic population decline in the Red
> Knot subspecies Calidris canutus rufa. Numbers at their wintering
> grounds in southern South America have fallen drastically in recent
> years; from 51,300 in 2000 to approximately 30,000 in 2004, and still
> further to just 17,200 in 2006.

Shireen Gonzaga
Baltimore, MD
[log in to unmask]