I’m a Chilean student and in my PhD thesis (in course) I try to asses the
impact of climate change in the agriculture through GCM, downscaling and
crop models. In fact, I will use the PRECIS’s projections that were done
in my region as start point.
For solving the problem of years of 360 days, I plan to use a stochastic
generator models. This solution is based in that the GCM’s outputs are not
a good forecast, but they are excellent projections. In this way, is
better work with monthly datasets and generate many scenarios for
assessing the impact.

I interested in generate a net of contact whit other peoples that work in
this theme, there is more problems that will solve, such as effect of ENSO
(that it not solved through stochastic models, in fact, we don’t know the
impact of climate change in this phenomena), or the probability of IPCC
scenarios.

With regards


Raúl Orrego
CAID Universidad de la Frontera
Temuco Chile
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