I have compiled below a list of the responses I have had to my question on the DSSAT and AGMODELS list servers (excluding the ones who said that
they would be interested in the results).
Original question: "For my own interest, I am trying to compile a list of documented examples in which agricultural (crop, soil, animals) simulation
models have had some demonstrated impact on development in tropical regions. Evidence I am aware of tends to be rather anecdotal, but I am after
cases that are in the easily available literature, and where the model(s) clearly played an important role in the developmental process, particularly in
relation to alleviation of poverty. Can anyone help?"
I must admit that I was a little disappointed at the limited response that I had. Does this mean that there are no examples at all of how models have
been used to aid development? The reason I am interested in models and development is that there is a growing feeling in the UK Department for
International Development (DFID) that models are not relevant to helping development, and that there should therefore be no further funding of modelling
projects. As a modeller, I was hoping for some concrete examples to go to them with showing that models had made some important contributions to
disabuse them of this absurd notion!
My next question is WHY are there no good examples? Here are some reasons I have thought of:
1. Simulation models are not yet sufficiently advanced to be used for this purpose.
2. Simulation models can never be used for this purpose anyway (i.e. they've been tried and failed).
3. All the people using simulation models for this purpose are too busy using them to reply.
4. All the people using simulation models for this purpose don't subscribe to AGMODELS or DSSAT.
5. Appropriate models have been developed but haven't been given the funding opportunities to be applied to specific problems.
6. Modellers as a rule are more interested in the intellectual challenge of building their models rather than using them.
7. Models have been used successfully, but it just hasn't been documented.
My third question is then HOW can we make models more useful in the developmental process? I would be interested in any thoughts others might
have.
Robin Matthews.
Responses:
From Donald K L MacKerron ([log in to unmask]):
I hesitated to reply to your first message about models that are
'useful' - To the industry was it? Or was it in tropical agriculture?
If the latter then I cannot help. If the former then you just might be
interested in the SCRI model of potato development and growth.
Its first version was a s a model of potential yield (carefully defined
so as to mean a 'realisable' potential). This was used in an excercise
to compare achieved commercial yields with the potentials of the same
crops. All this was done in the mid- to late 1980s. The excercise was
useful and, I think it had an educational role in that many growers and
commercial agronomists who knew of it learned and were convinced of the
things that really drive development and yield. Subsequent versions of
the model have been more sophisticated and can do more but, almost
certainly, they have not had the same impact. If this is of interest
then I can let you have some references and / or reports.
From Andre du Toit ([log in to unmask]):
I work in the semi arid areas of South Africa with modelling, but I
know of the work Benson Wafula have done climate change with
CERES-Maize in Kenya and his work on response farming.
The Country Study's Project on Climate Change should be a valuable
source of information regarding modelling activity's in the tropics.
[log in to unmask]
Comment from RBM: one reference to this work is: Wafula, B.M., 1995. Applications of crop simulation in agricultural extension and research in Kenya.
Agric. Syst. 49:399-412.
From Sarah Park-Dwyer ([log in to unmask]):
I was very interested to read your request for any examples of
developmental impact of agricultural models. My first degree was in
Development Studies and I am currently in the third year of a PhD studying
the mathematical modelling of two species cropping systems. I hope to
relate my current work to the practice of intercropping in developing
coutries.
I cannot offer you any examples at present, but can suggest you look at the
likes of Vandermeer and Willey as potential sources of examples from the
intercropping area. I've no doubt that you will find numerous examples and
I'd be very interested to discuss the results with you. I feel this is a
valuable exercise in highlighting the two-way dissemination of information
between the developed and developing worlds. Good luck.
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Dr Robin Matthews
Department of Natural Resources Management
Cranfield University, Silsoe, Bedfordshire MK45 4DT, UK.
Tel: +44 (0)1525 863008; Fax: +44 (0)1525 863384
Email: [log in to unmask]
WWW: www.silsoe.cranfield.ac.uk/agricsystems/people/RobinMatthews.htm
ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/rbmatthews/
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