Winter has struck the North Sea coasts. Ice on the beaches is forming
rapidly. Thus it seems we will have a severe winter coming. Nothing new as
every decade in the past had between one and three such winters. What
happens next is a mass exodus of waders south or southwest to ice-free
estuaries in France, Spain and Portugal. However not all waders leave. In
the Rhine-Meuse estuary in particular thousands of Oystercatchers, Icelandic
Redshank, Curlews, Sanderlings, Turnstones, Dunlin, Greenland Knots and some
Bar-tailed and Icelandic Godwits will stay behind and try to withstand the
frost. The first waders to die in these wintery conditions are invalids with
deformed bills, one foot etc. followed by inexperienced first-winter birds
but also albino's. Adult experienced birds are the last to go as they
usually feed in the deepest parts of the estuary rich in shellfish and other
food . We haven't had severe winters since the middle of the nineties and
hence no large scale mortality among waders though we did so on Eider ducks
which starved en masse. However if this winters sets through we expect a
higher than usual mortality since the Dutch government has allowed large
scale over-fishing of Mussels and Cockles in the past decade while the
British government allowed at least one estuary to be demolished.

I would like to know if this pattern of winter mortality among waders living
on the frontiers of winter is found elsewhere.
Happy New Year, Norman